As we move towards next year’s federal election, my focus is drawing to Queensland more and more – one of a number of reasons why this weekend’s Victorian election hasn’t been impacting on my consciousness much.
However, whatever the result, one thing that is absolutely certain is that it will result in a far more representative Upper House, as they are using a multi-member electorate, proportional representation voting system for the first time. Labor in Victoria should be congratulated for going ahead with this much more democratic system, as they are undoubtedly surrendering some power by doing so – something major political parties do not often do.
The preference flows are such that it is often hard to predict the winner of the final seat in each region. The Upperhouse Info website is the best place to go to see how the preferences might flow in various scenarios. It’s got these fab preference calculators which can help unravel the sometimes unpredictable nature of preference flows. Definitely worth checking out on election night once the Upper House results start coming through.
I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility that Labor will still gain a slim majority in the Upper House, but the most likely (and far more desirable) outcome is that the Upper House isn’t controlled by any one party or group. The Greens will undoubtedly win some seats, as will the Nationals (who are not in Coalition with the Liberals in Victoria and are unlikely to move that way any time soon). There is also a chance that smaller polling parties such as Family First, the Democrats and People Power will win a seat on preferences.
I try to avoid using this blog as a place for partisan proselytising, but I should mention the Democrat candidate for the South Metro region, Paul Kavanagh, who has worked very hard for many months. To use my favourite Clint Eastwood quote once again, “deserves got nothing to do with it”, so it may be that all his efforts are not reflected in the sort of vote which such efforts deserve. However, I think he’d make a pretty good MP too, so voters in this seat shouldn’t be afraid to take a chance on him.
As it says on Upperhouse Info, “the Democrats look more likely to be a “harvest” party than any of the others”, so you can’t rule this out. Anyway, we’ll all know soon enough.