Victorian election

As we move towards next year’s federal election, my focus is drawing to Queensland more and more – one of a number of reasons why this weekend’s Victorian election hasn’t been impacting on my consciousness much.

However, whatever the result, one thing that is absolutely certain is that it will result in a far more representative Upper House, as they are using a multi-member electorate, proportional representation voting system for the first time. Labor in Victoria should be congratulated for going ahead with this much more democratic system, as they are undoubtedly surrendering some power by doing so – something major political parties do not often do.

The preference flows are such that it is often hard to predict the winner of the final seat in each region. The Upperhouse Info website is the best place to go to see how the preferences might flow in various scenarios. It’s got these fab preference calculators which can help unravel the sometimes unpredictable nature of preference flows. Definitely worth checking out on election night once the Upper House results start coming through.

There’s also lots of info at Ozelections.com. Larvatus Prodeo has a series of posts on the Victorian election too.

I don’t think it’s beyond the realms of possibility that Labor will still gain a slim majority in the Upper House, but the most likely (and far more desirable) outcome is that the Upper House isn’t controlled by any one party or group. The Greens will undoubtedly win some seats, as will the Nationals (who are not in Coalition with the Liberals in Victoria and are unlikely to move that way any time soon). There is also a chance that smaller polling parties such as Family First, the Democrats and People Power will win a seat on preferences.

I try to avoid using this blog as a place for partisan proselytising, but I should mention the Democrat candidate for the South Metro region, Paul Kavanagh, who has worked very hard for many months. To use my favourite Clint Eastwood quote once again, “deserves got nothing to do with it”, so it may be that all his efforts are not reflected in the sort of vote which such efforts deserve. However, I think he’d make a pretty good MP too, so voters in this seat shouldn’t be afraid to take a chance on him.

As it says on Upperhouse Info, “the Democrats look more likely to be a “harvest” party than any of the others”, so you can’t rule this out. Anyway, we’ll all know soon enough.

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9 Comments

  1. here’s a poetic way of looking at it! 

    THE 25 NOVEMBER PARTY POEM

    While Bracks slacks
    and Labor cracks,
    Fail-you Baillieu in his budgie smugglers (obviously) doesn’t have the balls,
    And poor old Peter Ryan
    can’t stop cryin’
    So who knows which of the Old Vic parties will make the most DRAMATIC electoral fall?

    Now you need to ask whether the minors
    Will ultimately prove to be any finer….
    And can easily see
    that the DLP
    have returned from history
    as the ghost of politics past,
    But with at least one Green
    having been labelled obscene,
    Have either of them really earned our trust?

    Now People Power
    need to take a cold shower
    as this is clearly not going to be
    their very finest hour.

    The Family First crew
    have a self-righteous view
    that Victoria should be ruled
    By those who are fooled
    Into rejecting anything new…or blue

    So after hearing all that
    And needing to decide who should be sent in to bat
    For scrutiny of government
    And a well hung Parliament
    The only thing to do is VOTE ONE DEMOCRAT!

  2. I think proportional representation makes sense in multi-member districts and produces better outcomes. I am yet to be convinced the preferential voting in single member districts is superior to first past the post [FPTP].

    Preferential voting in single member districts seems to entrench party duopolies more effectively than FPTP.

  3. The multi member thing sounds all very Singaporean to me.

    So to that i say it is a ruse, given that Laborphiles are bent on taking the Commonwealth.

  4. The other region (apart from Paul in Southern) to watch as far as the Dems are concerned is Eastern metro, where Craig Beale is running for us, and depending on how close other parties are to the quota, he could get elected on less than 4% of the vote.
    Apart from that, it will be interesting to see what sort of swing there will be against the government, and whether Baillieu’s strategy of outspending the government is able to win them a reasonable number of seats.

  5. if the australian democrats are to prevent their slide from simple inconsequence into actual obscurity, they must lift their language from passive gossip to active leadership.

    they have never done this. don chipp was no better equiped by education or intellect than pauline hanson. his followers did not improve on his vision, which was simply to make a living in politics by saying ‘no’.

    it could have been much different, for the dems had the magic word in their name, and were the natural champions of democracy. unfortunately, like all australians, the dems thought that ‘democracy’ was something that happened in parliament.

    democracy happens when basic law and policy is set by citizen initiated referendum, when ministers are selected by direct election, and when the activities of ministers are a matter of immediate public record. none of this happens in australia, which is an oligarchy, not a democracy. democracy is rule by the electorate, not by a few hundred politicians. a shame that the ‘australian democrat’party never grasped this basic fact.

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