I find it hard to get enthusiastic following state election campaigns – too many photo ops and soundbites masquerading as policies wear me down. However, I am always interested in the results of elections, both in terms of overall results as the seat by seat contests. The final makeup of the Parliament after every election obviously has significant consequences for on future policy directions.
As usual, the ABC’s Antony Green has an election website up with all the details about each electorate and the swings required.
Mark from Larvatus Prodeo has joined Possum and the Poll Bludger to establish a blog at Crikey specifically for the Qld election. I probably won’t write that much on the state election, so I’d recommend keeping an eye on that site if you’re an enthusiast for elections.
Graham Young has conducted a fair bit of research through Online Opinion tracking political opinion and plenty of experience in political matters in Queensland, so some of his posts on election matters would also be worth reading.
I’ll be interested to see how the smaller parties perform. The Greens will be trying to hold on their seat of Indooroopilly which they gained when the sitting member, Ronan Lee, changed allegiances. They will also be hoping for some sizable votes in a few electorates. I think they are at fairly long odds of winning any new seats – it will be hard enough hanging on to Indooroopilly – because it is so hard for smaller parties to get media attention or traction at election time, and they will also be dramatically outspent by the big parties. However, winning a seat or two can’t be totally ruled out.
In the last state election in 2006, Family First polled reasonably well in a few seats – in my view mostly due to the lack of any other choices for conservative leaning minor parties. However, the party polled very poorly at the subsequent federal election and has been almost invisible in Queensland since then, so it’s hard to see them having much of an impact.
Some independents with local followings will poll well. I tip all four sitting independents to retain their seats, but the last remaining One Nation MP will lose her seat, after her electorate was impacted significantly by a major boundary change. Former sitting National MP Stuart Copeland, now contesting as an independent, has a good chance of winning what is effectively a LNP primary contest against sitting MP Ray Hopper. Ronan Lee is the underdog to retain his seat as a Green, but he still has a chance.
Feel free to leave your predictions here about how many seats each party will win. I predictLabor will lose some seats the LNP will hold all the seats they hold now (including those where the redistribution has made them nominally Labor), apart from Condamine where Stuart Copeland is running as an independent. My estimate is that Labor will win 50 seats and the LNP 33, plus 5 Independents and 1 Green.