Polling booth results in Brisbane and Ryan

Looking through the votes in different polling booths across an election gives a reminder of just how diverse our community is, even within a single electorate.

I was certainly pleased that the Greens managed to break the 20 per cent mark in the seat of Brisbane. This is obviously well above the 9 per cent I managed when I stood for the seat as A Democrat candidate in 1996, and is also higher than the best House of Reps result the Democrats ever managed to achieve in Queensland, which was 19.1 per cent in the seat of Ryan back in 1990.  The Greens look likely to poll about the same figure in Ryan this time around.

Looking at the individual booth results in the seat of Brisbane, out of the 40 booths (incl 2 pre-poll booths), 23 of them polled over 20 per cent.  Out of these, 11 polled over 25 per cent, and of these 4 polled over 30 per cent.  The Greens outpolled Labor to come in second in 3 booths (Ithica South (which is in Red Hill), Petrie Tce and Kelvin Grove) and came within 5 votes of topping the primary vote count in Kelvin Grove. To focus on the negatives for a moment, there were two booths below 10 per cent – which were Ascot at 8.9 per cent and the nearby booth at Clayfield, which polled a strangely low 2.9 per cent. (I’m more than used to polling low figures, so I’m not complaining about that per se, but it does seem strange that this booth is so markedly lower than all surrounding booths, and is the only one to actually go backwards from the last election, with the primary vote more than half what it was in 2007).

Whilst the Greens polled a bit lower in Ryan, it was actually far more successful when it came to outpolling one or both of the other major parties. Coming in second isn’t as good as coming in first, but with our preferential voting system, getting above one of the other major parties on primary is a crucial goal in being able to win the seat.

In Ryan, the Greens polled above 20 per cent in 16 booths out of 38, with 5 of those polling above 25 per cent, and 2 of them polling above 30 per cent. The Greens also outpolled Labor in 10 of those booths – mostly around Indooroopilly, Toowong, St Lucia and Milton – and won the Brisbane City election day booth (which is not based in the electorate, so it is similar to a sizable absentee booth).

Outpolling Labor in so many booths in that seat is partly due to the much weaker vote Labor achieved in Ryan compared to Brisbane, but it none the less shows that a rigid insistence on a two party mindset just does not reflect the reality in many parts of the state, or the country.

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  1. I don’t think the alp can continue to be complacent and slack in regards to the greens on their left flank for too much longer. For years they have loved the getting the free preferences for all the work the greens do, but this laziness will come back to bite them. Melbourne is the first sign of this. Could labor have possibly gotten 3 senators without the greens in qld?

    The media portray the greens as cool and new, while labor is painted as old and tired and full of hacks (all true for labor but not the greens). So some inner city electorates may go increasingly for the green fad.

    So Labor either has to take the greens on as a new faction so that they can control them and get their preferences properly, or it has to start attacking them, to stop them moving in on their seats. It won’t be hard to shed the tinyest of light on the greens extreme policies for people to see just how out of touch the greens are with reality. Did I hear they have a 100% renewables goal? Lol!

    But as long as the greens continue to be 100% predictable and give their pretences to labor without fail and to support labor when it counts, like the new member in Melbourne, they will basically be a defacto faction of the labor party.

  2. When giving out how-to-vote cards, I thought plenty of people were cheesed off with Labor, but I think both Labor and Liberals still have plenty of nongs with their heads buried in the sand (also a huge degree of selfishness on the part of Liberals).

    The people of Ascot and Clayfield are probably fairly rich, and therefore prefer to vote for Liberals. Those suburbs are close together – also near Hamilton, which is also affluent.

    The inner city areas are being taken over by more wealthy people as the elderly die or move out, and the prices of inner city land are higher. I think the Liberal vote is likely to increase, but I wouldn’t personally vote for Gambaro. I’m sure she had a bad reputation when she held the seat of Petrie.

    I’m not sure where Ithaca South is exactly, but as a child I grew up in Red Hill and attended Ithaca Creek State School and The Gap High, the same as Arch Bevis. My parents used to vote in the church near the corner of Waterworks Road and Lintern Street. I’m not sure if it is still a church.

    According to yesterday’s news, Arch Bevis may still be in contention for the seat, despite early counting favouring Gambaro. Maybe they counted the Ascot and Clayfield booths first.

    In future, if Arch wants to keep the seat or win it back, he should become an Independent, then tell Labor to stuff its corporate agendas up its jumper.

  3. I’d love to see one of these seats go Green in the future. It seems like the state election may be a great opportunity too given that Labor is unpopular but many people think the LNP is a bit hopeless as well. Also, I assume the optional preferential system would be of help.

  4. Thanks Jennifer

    Joe, the main thing that is old and tired are the stream of empty cliches and stereotypes you’ve used to describe the Greens, as well as a blinked perception of politics as just being about the two major parties and a fundamental misunderstanding of how Parliament works. One possible benefit of the current hung parliament is that more people (including some in the media) might start to get a better understanding that a political system involving three parties, as well as some genuine independents, will not always involve the same people grouping together to vote on every issue. That provides a much stronger incentive for policy and legislative proposals to be properly explained and justified, rather than just relying on numbers to bulldoze everything through.

    The Greens are strong in inner-city areas, but the Greens 3rd and 4th best polling seats are Fairfax and Fisher on the Sunshine Coast.

    !00% renewables is much less LOLable than the 90% coal which the Coalition is still comfortable with. Mechanisms for 100% renewables (over a couple of decades, not overnight) have been devised by some of the top scientists and engineers. Contempt for new ideas and knowledge is very old school, and it is not an attitude the Greens share.

    The Greens would never take on the role of a Labor faction (and I doubt Labor would want to try). The Greens do not “give their preferences to Labor without fail”, as this election again showed. Firstly, voters give their preferences, not the party. Secondly, many Greens how to vote cards showed an example or provided information which did not benefit the Labor Party – Labor themselves are saying this fact is the main reason why the seat of Lindsay was so close.

    As for Adam Bandt, the new Greens member for Melbourne, there is little doubt that the vast majority of his people in his seat would prefer a Labor government over a Liberal one. Are you suggesting he ingore the wishes of his electorate? Preferring a Labor government over a Liberal one does not mean supporting Labor on every issue, nor does it rule out supporting the Liberals under any circumstances. Life is full of situations where you don’t get your preferred outcome, but that doesn’t mean you then refuse to be cooperative or constructive.

    Also, Labor did not get 3 Senators in Qld this time, they only got two. At the 2007 election when they did get 3 Senators elected, it was without any assistance from Greens preferences.

  5. Hi Andrew, norwithstanding the final outcome of this election, you will always have our support.
    Anh Tuyet and the Hao Kiet people in Melbourne

  6. Congratulations Andrew on your achievement in this election. I’m looking forward to a different persona in the House of Reps, regardless of who is the PM. Personally, I’d prefer Julia Gillard as PM – I want the NBN as I think it’s too good an opportunity to lose for the future of the country. There are exciting possibilities that haven’t even been recognised or known of at this time. Hopefully, the final result will help stop the appalling arrogance of both major parties – it’s obvious, that I’m not alone in thinking this. The poll results are evidence of this view!

    I’m extremely pleased at the results of The Greens around the country, in both Houses. It’s a credit to you all, particularly as you don’t have the money or the support re paid helpers etc that the major parties do. I also like the policies of The Greens that combine practical reform with decency and compassion! I continue to support you Andrew, as a person of integrity, compassion, forward thinking re the environment and climate change, and a strong sense of justice and decency re the terrible plight of asylum seekers! I’m feeling quite optimistic about the future of politics and government in this country. Best wishes to you and your family!

  7. Just wondering, how long can the horse trading over who gets to form government go on? In the paper today Bob Katter is saying it could take weeks. Is there no definitive point at which a decision must be made?

  8. Berihebi

    The Constitution requires the Parliament within 30 days after the return of the writs following the election. The return of the writs occurs after the declaration of the result in each seat – these will probably occur by the end of next week or early the following.

    So technically a decision on who forms government might not be finalised until the Parliament is recalled, although I think that is very unlikely. I expect the Independents will not make a decision until the result in every seat is completely finalised (which will probably be the end of next week at the latest). Once that occurs, I’d very surprised if things dragged on longer than a week before a clear decision is made.

    One of the Governor-General is satisfied (probably via written commitments from the Indpendents and perhaps also the Greens MP) that either Gillard or Abbott can command a majority, the Governor-General will swear that person in as Prime Minister and they will recall Parliament soon after that to test their majority on the floor of the House of Reps.

    Anyway, I’d suggest we’lll all know with two weeks who the PM will be.

  9. Thanks for the info Andrew. One good thing in these situations is the opportunity to learn a bit more about parliamentary processes.

  10. Andrew,Congratulations on your results. Its a shame you didnt break it through the lower house barrier. It would have shown that QLD isnt as rednecked as we all think. Next time. Congratulations on a great result. Will you recontest next election? What do you make of the Greens overall position in Australian politics now?

  11. how about the majority of us mugs that voted for some sensible balanced well managed government? Look forward to going broke with rest of you.The system sucks.

  12. The anomalous vote at the Clayfield booth seems to have been a counting error on the night. Rechecking 2.9% to 13.74% – which adjusts my result from the ‘ordinary’ vote (this election day + pre-polls within the electorate) to 21.1%.

    Rechecking seems to have costs Labor another 89 votes in the two party preferred count, which almost puts the seat out of reach for them now.

  13. Yeah, I still think we’re going to get an LNP government with most of the Independents thrown in.

  14. LNP exists only in QLd, as I understand it … to the rest of us, the Libs and Nats are in a coalition .. less stable than one party and no less stable than a Green/Labor coalition … well, maybe more ethical … maybe .. still can’t forget AWB .. Ruddock … Work Choices …

  15. I think we might get an Abbott government too. What im starting to wonder is how could Labor have got it so wrong after just one term. Thank god we have the Greens in the Senate though. Abbott will be like a wild dog with his wacky and embarrassing ways.Where going to go back to the future policy wise though. He was spoon fed by Howard.

  16. You might find that Cayfield result has been updated. Good thing they rescrutineer and recount the votes!

  17. I think that Andrew gaining over 20% of the vote compared to under ten per cent in a previous life, indicates not so much any failings of the Democrats earlier, vis a vis the Greens, but the manifestation of a realisation that time is running out. Also the vote splitting that occurred between the Dems and Greens is now resolved.
    Result, a 21% vote for a progressive unit at just a time when when the public is livid with the old formations for their complacency and deviousness.
    Wake up Abbott and Gillard.The public is sick of the disregard and you are increasingly under notice, from this election onwards.
    Your refusal to deal with real issues now has a newer party, the Greens, up and running also a group of “small c” independents from regional areas who also feel disenfranchised.

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