Possible impact of double dissolution on the Senate
Just as a bit of guide to what the possible impact of a double dissolution (or full-Senate) election might be on the numbers in the Senate I have tried to calculate what the Senate result would have looked like if the recent election had been a double dissolution, electing the whole Senate instead of just half of it.
With a double dissolution election, the entire Senate is up for re-election, instead of the normal half-Senate scenario. This means that instead of candidates needing 14.3% to win one of the 6 seats available, they need 7.7% to win one of the 12 seats available, which can dramatically change the nature of the Senate, given how finely it can be balanced.
It is impossible to be sure what the outcome of a full Senate election would be, but if the same Senate vote from the just completed election was repeated with the same Senate preference allocations of all the parties and candidates, my calculations suggest it could have led to a Senate result of Labor 31, Coalition 32, Greens 8, Xenophon 2, Family First 2 and Climate Change Coalition 1.* (this is based on the Senate primary vote count at time of writing – I might redo this calculation once the count is finalised in another week or so and see if it’s any different)
At first glance this might have looked like things were worse for Labor, as they would go from 32 to 31 seats. But the much bigger impact – and one of much more interest to Labor – would be the Coalition going from 37 seats to 32. It would mean Labor would able to get things passed with just the vote of Greens Senators. Even if the result was different by a single seat, it would give Labor more options for getting things passed than they will have under the current attangement.
As I mentioned here, it appears likely that the Senate numbers from mid-2008 will have the Labor government with 32 seats, with the Coalition on 37, Greens on 5 and one each to Nick Xenophon from South Australia and the Family First Senator from Victoria. This will mean on any issue where Labor can’t get Coalition support, they will need all 7 votes from the Green/Xenophon/Family First cross-bench – assuming someone like Barnaby Joyce can’t be coaxed across at any particular time.
It is hard to know how often Labor will need this cross-bench combination, let alone how hard it will be to get agreement across the 7 crossbenchers. I will mention in passing that there will be no one on this cross-bench from Queensland (or from New South Wales). If I had been re-elected, I would have been part of this combination, so it makes me slightly wistful to think of what might have been in such scenarios, but such is life I suppose.
In any case, the prospect of Labor having difficulty stitching together sufficient numbers to get their legislation through with sufficient ease does raise the prospect of whether a double dissolution election could be called, and what that might do to the makeup of the Senate. Such an election can be called when a piece of legislation has failed to pass the Senate (Parliament) twice, with a three month gap in between.
So despite the inevitability of a larger crossbench, and possibly no extra seats for themselves, there would be an incentive as far as Senate numbers go for Labor to find a reason for a double dissolution election, as the most certain aspect of the result would be a clear drop in Coalition numbers. However, if the new Senate numbers don’t prove too troublesome, there’s probably no need for them to do anything other than wait until the next normal half-Senate election, which will almost certainly see the anomaly of the Family First Senator disappear from Victoria, along with the equally unusual extra Coalition Senate spot from Queensland.
* These numbers are derived from the following results:
- NSW: 5 ALP, 5 Coalition, 1 Green, 1 Climate Change Coalition
- Vic: 5 ALP, 5 Coalition, 2 Green
- Qld: 5 ALP, 5 Coalition, 1 Green, 1 Family First
- WA: 5 ALP, 6 Coalition, 1 Green
- SA: 4 ALP, 4 Coalition, 2 Xenophon, 1 Green, 1 Family First
- Tas: 5 ALP, 5 Coalition, 2 Green.
- ACT & NT: 2 ALP, 2 Coalition.
The last seat or two in some states would be fairly finely balanced, and small fluctuations could easily affect the result. However, the result would be something close to this, especially as far as the major parties go.
28 Comments, Comment or Ping
John Humphreys
Not to mention the very real possibility of a Democrat or micro-party candidate being elected. Especially from NSW where micro-party deals are notoriously strong. Indeed, I’m suprised your analysis didn’t have the CDP being elected in NSW.
Dec 5th, 2007
CORAL
Yes, based on today’s National Press Club address, the prospect of a double dissolution wouldn’t be entirely out of the question.
I think Family First will vote with the Liberals.
But I’m sure we will see Labor and the Greens working as a coalition of sorts in both the Senate and lower house.
Dec 5th, 2007
philip travers
Your Honesty is overwhelming Andrew,what a waste.
Dec 5th, 2007
philip travers
As I read the SMH this morning on-line,your losing in the Senate is a double blow,because of some of the journalistic commentary filth,by Devine,and then some masterful strokes of keeping up the anti-Muslim agenda by other means.These people who divine some sort of weakness of character in generally supporting Muslim and Aboriginal causes,whilst, obviously aware of all that may entail, do not seem to have the conviction of what they claim are their insights.So this morning I feel Philip Adams is defensible,and even the problem of further problems with other generations doesnt make Adams wrong,indeed, his feelings are even more defendable.His thoughts also.The world has decided something about George Bush,and at DavidIcke.com I learnt that Osama bin Laden who ever he is or was only started calling his group AL Quada because the Americans called it that,and the Italian member of Parliament who recently made a statement about 9/11 was authorative enough for me.Habib may have been suckered by the U.S.A. rather than some any other organization,if, as some say he[bin Laden],has a direct relationship with the Bushs over a long time.So will our law enforcers acknowledge that the terrorists are essentially some functions of the U.S.A. government and Bush himself..unless he explains himself coherently…which seems impossible,but Habib has to!? The Greens arent keeping the ALP honest either,re GMO chook cages etc.And the crap coming out of the ALP federally and States is unbelievable putrid.There is a long sad more,thanks Andrew.
Dec 6th, 2007
ken
You’d be better off picking the Melbourne Cup, already the trend from the recent election would be unlily to dtraight line – givern peoples natrual inclination to interpert the results.
I am surprised however that you didn’t mention a) that there have only ever been six dd’s – of thosie 2 failed, Rudds no Hawke, Howard had plenty of triggers but didn’t take the risk – so its not very historically likely and b) incumbent governments are often not totally unhappy to have legisltion blocked by the senate tactiaclly as a mechanism for blame.
Dec 6th, 2007
Andrew Bartlett
All true enough Ken – I mostly raised it as an academic exercise, although I think there are a couple of key differences from the recent past which make it at least worth examining.
A double dissolution doesn’t have to mean an overly early election (although first term governments are more likely to go at least a little bit early given even half a chance). The main benefit to Labor would be to reduce the Coalition very high Senate numbers. This didn’t apply during the Howard years – a double dissolution would have probably reduced the strength of the Coalition’s position, even if it had allowed the blocked legislation to be passed.
Also Howard didn’t have a major piece of legislation available as a D-D trigger in his first term. It wasn’t until later that he started to stack them up.
I don’t think its overly likely – but until the dynamics of the new Senate (and the new government) become clearer, it is always a possibility. And despite the impossibility of predicting the precise outcome – esp in regards to minor parties – there is not much doubt it would reduce the Coalition’s strength.
Dec 6th, 2007
scaper...
If this is to be the result, the Greens will indeed hold the balance of power in July.
I believe Rudd will bide his time, but that does not necessarily mean he won’t test the waters, so to speak.
I’m sure his new IR legislation will be blocked, but what legislation do you believe would be passed in the mean time?
scaper…
Dec 6th, 2007
Graham Bell
Andrew Bartlett:
Thanks for doing whatever you could to keep that flicker of democracy alive in Australia.
It is very annoying that a bunch of people I consider to be rubber-stamps have been elected.
Please don’t give up …. a double dissolution might be what saves us all.
Dec 6th, 2007
philip travers
More evidence of why the Democrats were a good choice for voters and,finding reasons for a double Dissolution,is probably in the wrong hands is in the fluoridation of Queensland water by Bligh.As a decision it shows the usual contempt for people State Public Health people have and those influenced by such.How a figure of 60% of some measure of better oral health in Townsville represents a reason for fluoridation,because Townsville is fluoridated,is statistical nonsense based on the collection of figures that cannot seem to be seen by government and fluoridation propogandists as unscientific.Why I can claim it isnt scientific,is because I am not one and I see the flaw in the 60% figure,in itself glaring at me. Round figures especially unconsidered ones related to any human health problem are distinctly impossible and ludicrous.The figures do not state a number of things that are fundamentals, of longitudinal studies,and because an individual with good teeth will not have had a ongoing health test to see if their are problems elsewhere ,say in emerging bone density problems, and then the other side of the argument maybe that if you are knowledgeable of fluoride in the water ..there then could be a better focus on diet and teeth…which obviously could lead to better outcomes.That is a placebo effect.My guess is why the Townsville figures are good has nothing to do with the water ,but, more to do with a transient population,so the ingestion of water is even smaller per measured individual than the expected amount drank.However we do not hear from these individuals with 60% better dental health to ask them wether in fact they believe it is the water or something about themselves and what they do. The fluoridation of water by resorting to statistics of a particular measure of justification is brainless,and,Queenslanders will have to expect more of this.And how the fluoride in the particular water body may in fact be actually neutralising its normal effect!
Dec 7th, 2007
Damian
Andrew, speaking hypothetically (as you have been) do you think that the people would be better represented if the half-Senate elections were done by having elections for half the States rather than half the Senators?
I believe that this might encourage the development of stronger sustainable minor parties, and ensure that the balance of power would be held on an ongoing basis by parties that represented significant public view points.
Dec 7th, 2007
philip travers
Sorry, to bore again,but the Genetically Modified Organism debate now reduced to the power of State Labor governments to toe the the New World Order, means another defeat for democracy via the criminal minds who are now planning deeper control over humanity.The even have a seed bank in the Artic called the Doomsday Seed Bank.Now why have they done this,and why is it that a company or three that modifies seeds and blasts normal production aside, is so concerned about some future apocalypse!?Because they have been trying it on for years,and all the security madness of recent times has been an attempt to engineer towards this final outcome!So it is probably ,no guess, that I have visited DavidIcke.com, to find this connection and a book title that may already be known to activists opposed to GMO production in Australia.And even those who have won in government trying it on for their own reasons.Bludgers! GMOs and fluoridation,and the Gustaf Nossal influence makes me think maybe vomit ,somewhere in the future will be the safest food.It was only of recent times the enzymatic actions of our stomachs have been considered as very important to health ,and research on some matters of health elucidated that some N.Z.and Australian honeys had medicinal qualities.The honey industry is already under threat in Australia,for other reasons,and the State Labor governments,Vic. and N.S.W. are criminally responsible..class action time!
Dec 7th, 2007
philip travers
And once more with gusto!Before I leave to tackle some big prickles in a cattle yard.There might be skill shortages everywhere,but there will always be prickles,and that seems my lot in life.I heard the A.LP. s excuse for a Agricultural Minister this morning,and if he knew anything about farming and climate change it is probably likely he would be using the same English language as any farmer in Australia could also be using.Still he is qualified because he speaks the same language I suppose.Whereas I am not,because I speak the same language, I suppose.Plus, I have seen many seasons of prickles,I suppose.But are the climate change difficulties as say marketing and fuel and other costs for the foreseeable future!?I suppose they arent because I am not qualified to think that that is in fact the case.Then when I say the problem of climate change doesnt exist if we have atmospheric moisture and use its abundance,I must be talking through my head,unless someone else with qualifications says the same thing as research projects,I suppose.Then there is the lack of young people,which could mean,if you regularily listen to the ABC and all its guests some people between the ages of naught to say 35.Whereas I was talking about possible farmers and,eh, paid workers.So dont ask me to accept their Minister,when he hasnt got the foggiest about farming,accept an open mind,I suppose.So instantly He would be open to introducing GMOs but it is OK to be concerned about your markets if you arent as GMO grower!?When non-GMO growers have existed as farmers longer than the non ,but wanna bees!? I wanted to be a tip truck driver when ,I was four years old…when is the ALP going to grow up?
Dec 8th, 2007
CORAL
Yes, Phil, and the proponents of “man-made” global warming are a bunch of con artists as well – with multiple interconnected rotten agendas.
I don’t know even one intelligent person who believes that load of tripe.
Scientists have been hybridising and modifying various foods for years. That’s why there are so many different kinds and sizes of strawberries available over a longer period each year.
The carrots my aunt grows in her own backyard turn limp a few days after picking.
By comparison, store bought carrots have been sprayed with something mimicking a long acting super species of Viagra, which keeps them fresh for months.
When you’re out in the garden or paddock, beware of wasps. I’ve been stung twice in the last 3 weeks. The first one got me through 2 layers of clothing, and I had a red lump the size of a tennis ball on my abdomen.
I think I’d rather land on a prickle.
Dec 8th, 2007
philip travers
You might be luckier,in one sense, that you wont be in the Senate, than what you may have allowed for feeling positive about not being there Andrew!And I prefer calling you Senator ,because the more I try to accept my own attitudes ,in terms of what is really being honest to myself,as a form of empowerment ,where I have little power, being here on your site before the election was a process of being disappointed,and not wanting to hurt your prospects.Now you have lost,I feel even more defiant,about not voting,because of the pathetic choices other voters disallow me my use of the vote for representative empowerment. I read what Swan had to say about the ALP and tax,and what and what isnt,by implication, being socially progressive, in terms of tax apparently and employment.Little would he know the contempt I feel for the central tax and evaluation of humans ,implied, attitudes from such underwhelming sources such as himself.I just wonder why he thinks the unemployed and the underemployed and the rest of categories,outside of economically measured employment,really want to be used as fodder for an apparent encouragement to work for private business somewhere in the future,and everything about them,is just so appealing apparently to us.And ,of course, the services already present to describe who we are and what we could be,we are so happy with them,that, well there is hardly any criticism..is there!?And then there is other government ,like Iemma s who just finished building a tunnel that was too steep for the latest of trains!?They just ignored it,and it went away by sending the older trains through it!?No apparent technical fix in sight,although maybe the sawmilling industry has in the past had to deal with problems like this.And there are still cable companies,one in Melbourne,a bit unfriendly to workers.And then there is the State power grid sell off to even more private interests,but,Dear old Labor will keep the cost down for consumers,eh, forever and a day Dear!?
Dec 8th, 2007
CORAL
Let me tell you something about power (electricity), Phil.
I am on the cheapest tariff (night rate) which is supposed to heat my system from 11.00 p.m. to 7.00 a.m. They say they do me a favour by boosting the HWS up for another hour each afternoon, which is completely unnecessary.
But what really happens? When they have a surplus of power to sell, they boost the HWS up on and off all day, wearing out the heating element to maximise their own profits.
And in the winter months, when it’s not very cold in Brisbane, and people are burning all of the power with their heaters and air-conditioners (mostly unnecessarily), my hot water system is left to go cold.
If it were possible, I would teleport my heater to your place, since I haven’t seen a need to use it in years. In the rare event of a cold snap, I get under a blanket.
Dec 9th, 2007
philip travers
Thanks Corral,raining as I write,I am sure your comments need further investigation as a consumer rights matter,I dont use my hot water service,and I think that some matters of electronics could replace something within existing hot water services ,so the electricity supply isnt a consumer problem.Organic carrots are supposed to last longer,so what you say,definitely needs elucidating.I am a pretty young 53 year Corral the problem isnt the work,its the bloody status,I could run this country on what I get as a disability pensioner..that is really my point,about all these overpaid inadequacies as paid officials and Parliamentarians.I am supposed to be somehow damaged goods as a registered in Victoria mental patient..I didnt believe I should of been treated at all,and I was fully unemployed then and essentially homeless without embarassing family..I think the wrong people get elected in Australia and this will continue to be.The Internet has convinced me more of that,with two sites offering the complete background for my self worth and Andrews. DavidIcke.com. KeeleyNet.com, are on the ball and showing me how pathetic Australian politics and intellectual life is they prefer their own stupidity,when in fact, I actually shine in a manner only a few would understand and fully appreciate.The barriers in front of me I have hurdled,and have made some powerful people look like idiots..they cannot handle it.So I am stuck on the pension,the system doesnt work.The mouths will open and close,the bullshit will continue, the bastards wont learn. And what I have learned today,is very little indeed.I had a comment on Police dogs and why the Greens are wrong ,but well intentioned that met the expectations of Police and the Greens and even the busted…but I have to economise with the rules of 24 hrs and 2000 characters.Keep making observations Corral,even if I disagree.Someone may look them up,and empower those where its needed.
Dec 9th, 2007
Alphonse
Thanks for doing the numbers, Andrew. I well remember Dems’ (and my) anguish over Lib-Lab senate bipartisanship under Howard, Keating and Hawke. Do you imagine there’ll be similar anguish amoung Greens/FF/X under Rudd? If so, on what sort of issues?
I don’t see Nelson putting any tasty DD triggers (eg WorkChoices, greenhouse) into Rudd’s Christmas 08 stocking. The likely loss of coalition senate seats would expose his jugular to Turnbull.
Assuming a repeat of this years’ vote, how might the senate numbers stack up after a half-senate election in 2011?
Dec 9th, 2007
CORAL
Here’s something else to ponder, Phil, if you haven’t done so already.
I don’t believe that all schizophrenics are diagnosed correctly. Some people just have higher levels of mental functioning that most other people can’t understand. It frightens them.
Dec 9th, 2007
Graham Bell
Damian [on 10]:
Hate to disillusion you but there are quite a few compelling reasons for the Liberals-Labor-Nationals coalition [or oligarchy, if you like] and their associates in the news media and other influential bodies to wish all the other parties out of existence.
Though I don’t agree with it, your suggestion of elections by half the states is an interesting one. The big, really big, problem is the same as for getting any fundamental reform in our political system: HOW do you implement it?
Being nice and working hard won’t get you anywhere. Nor will having a referendum [we saw enough of that with the dodgy one on a republic]. Violent revolution won’t work either – unless you fancy being ruled by a Stalin or an Idi Amin – and the chances of getting the change you want are three-sixteenths of zilch. Throwing buckets of money around is a sure-fire way of getting [or preventing] change but it does take quite a while to save up all those bottle-tops ….
So, any ideas at all – no matter how wild – on how such a change could be implemented?
Dec 9th, 2007
philip travers
Yet another strange day already as far as news and views are concerned,and Peter Coorey thinks there is 2% in the present government governing or not!? No doubt first pointed out somewhere else rather than the SMH.But the Boxall fellow and Raper are the same disease on different sides of what the money guards for welfare will accept passing through.Put boxing gloves on both of them,so they can punch some sense into each other and leave the rest of us to forget,what they are doing for me faces…looked like. I was going to go on about the potential to use carbon dioxide sources as a potential in permanent road building by creating crystals of a particular type to always align their polarities,and the direct use of the electric grid as is,to be part of making sure roads dont break down any further by utilising the available current.KeeleyNet.com has a picture and source of corral regrowing with applied electricity underwater, this fits in completely with what I am very broadly outlining here and previously on coal fired power sources of carbon dioxide.Its a bloody shame that people have to protest against dredging,because of exports,and Australian research remains the problem.Not the protestors.I feel crazy somedays ,dealing with an American technology that the Australian governments wont do anything about,whilst dealing with my limited power to influence in a practical way.The Global warming statements are boring me silly also.Dis might be,this post, to some partial and real solutions,with the double dissolution in the background..any bets that I wont have to repeat myself!?What odds!?
Dec 10th, 2007
CORAL
Damian: # post 10
I find your suggestion strange, impractical and unworkable. The government is never going to do that.
Graham Bell:
That’s a good question. Perhaps a person with very great supernatural power could do it. You know – strike fear into the hearts of poltical leaders – then make them behave in a proper and fair fashion.
Dec 10th, 2007
philip travers
So Aboriginal matters are back on the agenda,with riots,grog running and Police bashing and rape of ten year old girls Andrew!? But I just wonder about Rudd and his statement!? Has he made comments about terrible behaviour before!? Or he has been hiding his outrage under the Labor Presidential style!? AH! Yes! The democratic flower and drinkies as celebration over and with Al Gores inaccuracy ,and criminal contacts like the Clintons and Spiderman!?What a moral strongman is Rudd!? Will I name the dead young lady and the FBI types who because of the Clintons could be shot!? The high fivers of Australian-American completely phoney unreal images. The TV detailers of governing us.Duck your heads ALP supporters and that way you wont see the murderous smarm that Rudd befriends.
Dec 10th, 2007
Andrew Bartlett
Alphonse
If the 2007 election result was repeated next time as a half-Senate election, it would mean the overall Senate numbers would change to:
Qld – Coalition would lose a seat to Labor
Vic – Family First seat would go to Labor
Tas – Liberal seat would go to Labor
WA, NSW, ACT & NT – same
SA can’t be predicted with certainty, as Nick Xenophon wouldn’t be running if the next election was a half-Senate. However, he clearly took a lot of votes this time from both Labor and Liberal, so the most likely result would be 3 ALP, 3 Lib, which would mean no change.
This result would deliver Senate numbers of
Coalition 35, Labor 35, Greens 5, Xenophon 1 (making Xenophon irrelevant on balance of power issues and meaning Labor would need only Greens support on any question where the Coalition was opposed).
Which all reinforces why there is not much longer-term for Labor in going to a double dissolution unless they are having real trouble getting the Green-Xenophon-Family First numbers on important issues and want to take the risk of an early election in order to change that dynamic more quickly.
Dec 12th, 2007
philip travers
The G-X-F-F, sounds like a wonderful and deeply insightful set of people who will never do no wrong,and with belief as the ultimate form of logical progression and traditional reasoning,no doubt as a standard invariable we will hear endless fantastics to describe every ecological area saved from a fate worse than its description in some other way.If not that, then, superlatives in abundance..already warn out in my acceptance.
Dec 13th, 2007
CORAL
That’s cynical, Phil, but steeped in both intelligence and truth.
Dec 19th, 2007
muzzmonster
I was tending to agree with Andrew that there was little reason for Labor to go to a double dissolution, and his figures seem to reinforce my thoughts.
People generally dislike elections, and I’d have thought that Labor’s vote (and seats) would be only likely to drop from here. Why risk any seats for a dubious gain at best.
I think the next federal election will be in 2010 (or early 2011 which is possible)
Dec 19th, 2007
CORAL
muzz:
I think the chances of a double dissolution are quite high.
I can’t see Labor losing any seats if it happens within a fairly short space of time.
Kevin Rudd seems to be trying to do something about problems in the public hospital system, and he seems to be working well with the Labor state premiers.
People will not quickly forget the abuses of John Howard.
Dec 22nd, 2007