Betting on the Senate
A couple of months ago I wrote a piece about the betting markets for the upcoming federal election, and noted that in amongst all the different contests people could bet on, there didn’t seem to be anyone taking bets on the outcomes of any of the Senate contests.
So I was interested to see in today’s Crikey a report that one bookmaker has started to provide some odds for people who want to bet on at least one aspect of the various Senate contests.
You still can’t bet on the full outcome of a specific Senate contest in any state, or on any particular candidate, but you can bet on whether or not at least one minor party Senator will get elected in a particular state, or in the ACT. Given that, unlike House of Reps seats, Senate contest are far less likely to be two horse races, you’d think bookies would be more interested in these contests. However, I presume it’s more the case that punters aren’t interested in betting on them rather than any reluctance on the part of bookies.
The Crikey article detailed the current probabilities listed by the betting agency of at least one minor party candidate being successful. I was interested to see that, of the six states, Queensland was listed as the one least likely to have a seat won by a minor party candidate. This is not overly uplifting for me, given that’s my seat which I’m hoping to win back. However, it does at least give extra weight to my warnings that there is a real chance of the major parties winning all six of the Queensland Senate seats (as there is in most other states too).
The odds listed in Crikey has the probability of a minor party winning a Senate seat in Queensland at 44.9%, followed by South Australia 47.3%, Victoria 48.6%, New South Wales 50.0%, WA 52.0% and Tasmania 94.4%. The high probability in Tasmania reflects the near certainty that Green Party Leader Bob Brown will get re-elected. As was pointed out in Crikey, these odds are probably built around a very small betting pool (thus far). It is worth noting that they suggest there is no better than a 50-50 chance of any minor party representation remaining in the Senate for the states of NSW, SA and Qld, as the only non-major party representative from each of those states is recontesting this time.
For what it’s worth, I think the chances of a non-major party wining in Victoria are better than they are in any of the other states (apart from Tasmania obviously), but the probability levels of particular outcomes really won’t become clearer until the Senate preference tickets are lodged three weeks out from polling day.
PS I should also note for the record, I won’t be betting on the outcome of any electoral contest – Senate or otherwise.
6 Comments, Comment or Ping
coconaut
If only the senate was double the size, then a minor party seat would be almost 100% certain in some states.
Oct 9th, 2007
philip travers
I hope Crikey are not taking you for granted Senator! Didnt one of their major personalities have a political ambition? Dont let them cheat on you with openness like this, issue to issue.. to see some sort of weakness in support.Even if there is a weakness of support, the problem maybe, elsewhere,because the phoney election campaign is dragging on..and Whilst I may have a sense of insensitivity about soldiers being killed in Afghanistan, I sort of laughed,knowingly,at the ecstasy charges on soldiers at Wodonga. What gooses,and maybe that says a lot of the problem Howard is creating by insisting military activity is honourable and glamorous as the roll out of heroes replaces the reality that life requires rules,regulations laws if everyone is living in images of themselves,where on viewing self,like people with anorexia, we just dont measure up. Our previous measures become more gross as the moments go by. Perhaps the dead soldier Pearce deserves my respect…I wont give it, not because he is the problem, the problem lies somewhere else.
Oct 9th, 2007
Clinton
I think its about time for senate delegations of sixteen per state, with of course a constitutionally required similar increase in lower house seats. We could stage this in by electing eight for each state at the 2010 election, and another eight at the 2013 election. This would allow for some more reasonably sized lower house seats reduce the resources required for candidates to address their constituents.
Oct 14th, 2007
muzzmonster
Not a bad idea Clinton. Can’t see the big old parties letting it through though. Especially if it involves more politicians. That’s never a popular sell.
Oct 14th, 2007