Labor Leadership contest(s)
This coming week is the final one for Parliament for this year. The vast bulk of media coverage will be focussed on the ALP’s leadership contest(s) and its outcome(s). The political coverage in the weekend newspapers has been full of little else.
There is plenty of commentary about the Labor leadership in the Australian political blogosphere. Leftwrites notes that there is no real indication of what the policy impact of a change to Rudd might be, which is an indication of how leadership is more about selling skills than policy direction.
You can sample some of the other commentary at John Quiggin, stoush.net (focusing on Julia Gillard), Larvatus Prodeo, Diogenes Lamp, Wombat’s Waffles (who says it could be a vote changer for him), Kalimna, the Lost Legionary, F Skippy and Letters from the Backbench. For a sample from the mainstream media, try Michelle Gratten, who justifiably won a Walkley Award this year for journalistic leadership.
I don’t know much about who is voting for who. Two Labor MPs told me how they were voting. One who said they were voting for Rudd I saw listed in a few newspaper pieces as a ‘probable Beazley’ vote, and another who said they didn’t expected to receive any phone calls over the weekend because it was so well know they were in the Rudd camp I saw listed in at least three different newspaper articles as being ‘undeclared or undecided’.
Having said that, I have far less inside knowledge than any of the 88 federal Labor MPs, so I am not very well placed to know who is likely to win. Of course most of the Labor people who do have the inside knowledge have a vested interest in boosting the chances of their preferred candidate, so even though they have the knowledge, one can’t really rely on what they say.
I don’t think my chances of retaining my own Senate seat in Queensland will be directly affected one way or the other by whoever wins the Labor leadership. Of much more direct relevance to me is the fact that Queensland National Senator Ron Boswell won his pre-selection and will be saddling up for another round, which I think is preferable for my chances than some of the others on offer. This is no reflection on Ron, who is quite good as what he does, and is also one of the more decent human beings amongst the current crop of Senators. Giving him another run may well be best for the National’s chances of retaining a Queensland Senate seat – something which is far from a foregone conclusion. However, the sort of voters I will be targeting would have been more likely to have been interested in another maverick, semi-independent Barnaby Joyce type of National candidate, so I don’t think it hurts my chances as the candidate who will be truly independent of both major parties.
Anyway, with no vested interest and very little knowledge, my guess is that Kevin Rudd will win. Maybe it’s the Queenslander in me, or maybe it’s because I like some of the ideas I have seen Julia Gillard express about how to make politics in general more meaningful for the average person.
Apart from the main leadership contest, Labor’s Senate leadership team has also been declared vacant, and it is possible that there may be changes there too. Labor’s Senate leadership is currently Chris Evans and Stephen Conroy. They have both been doing a reasonable job in my opinion, which is not to say that there aren’t some other relatively talented Labor frontbenchers in the Senate.
It will be interesting to see how much of a shakeup there is to Labor’s shadow cabinet out of this. However, for all that the media always bangs on about weak shadow ministries and shallow talent pools, the media fixation with the Leaders is so excessive that even the best Minster or shadow minister has trouble cutting through into the media/public consciousness. If Rudd wins, this will probably be doubly so, as I expect he will be keen to maximise his role in running with most issues as a way of building up his profile on issues outside his traditional foreign affairs area.
In any case, whoever wins will face an extremely difficult, monumentally challenging task and I can only wish them well on a personal level.
18 Comments, Comment or Ping
Peter Fuller
Andrew,
Your post adds to your reputation for generous and reflective observations. I’m not a Queenslander and committed to Labor, but I certainly wish you well in your struggle next year.
And, I’m in a funk, waiting for Monday’s outcome, which I haven’t the remotest possibility of influencing.
Dec 3rd, 2006
Coalition Unity
Should the government repeat its 2004 Queensland Senate election result, the Liberals would 3 seats and the Nationals 1 seat. Thus the government would be in a strong position to retain control of both houses of Parliament.
From a strategic point of view, Andrew, you could join the Liberal Party and win their extra seat. That way you could become a maverick Liberal senator rather than becoming a former Democrat senator.
Just imagine: Liberal Senator Bartlett and Nationals Senator Joyce, both mavericks in the upper house. There could be some good coalition unity in that team.
Dec 3rd, 2006
Yulia
Democrat Senator Bartlett retaining his seat at the 2007 election, thereby stopping the Coalition from repeating it’s 2004 election result and thus returning the Senate to an independent house of review seems a much better scenario to me.
Dec 3rd, 2006
skepticlawyer
Trackback
The best post on this issue I’ve read. Thanks.
Dec 3rd, 2006
John Humphreys
I think Andrew is probably already resigned to the high liklihood of not being re-elected. More likely 3 lib, 2 lab, 1 grn. I’m not even sure what set of circumstances will lead to getting the Dems up anywhere. Sorry.
Of course, while I think Andrew knows this, I don’t expect him to agree with it publicly.
I’ll be running against you Andrew (for the Liberal Democratic Party) and I’ll probably preference you above the parties that matter — but that won’t make much difference.
Good post btw.
Dec 4th, 2006
Andrew Bartlett
Hopefully I won’t lose your preferences by disagreeing with you John, but I haven’t resigned myself to losing at all. A recent Morgan Senate poll, plus another unreleased one I have seen by another research firm, both registered close to 6 percent. I got elected in 2001 on 6.2% of the vote, so it is certainly winnable (although there is a big difference between getting 6 percent in a poll and 6 percent in an election).
It will be a difficult task to win my seat again in Queensland, but it is certainly doable, and I figure I have a responsibility and obligation to try.
All 6 seats in Qld went to the Coalition and Labor in 2004 and there is a good chance of that happening again unless I can get my primary vote up. However, as always, the last 1 or 2 seats are uncertain.
2 Lib and 2 Labor are definite, and either Lib or Nat will win another. The final one could go to any of Liberal, Labor, democrat, green or Family First.
In such a scenario, I’ve got every reason to do all I can, and no reason to be resigned to losing. If I do end up not winning, I’ll have plenty of time to get resigned to the outcome then.
Dec 4th, 2006
Yulia
Listening to Kevin Rudd on AM this morning he certainly was impressive – thought the buzz lines start to grate a bit when repeated several times in one short interview. (Do Australians really think too themselves “weeeell I reckon that was a bridge to far?”)
Much as I like and respect both Kim Beazley and Jenny Macklin, I think the new leadership team stands a better chance of allowing Labor to turn all those positive poll results into a positive election poll result next year.
Dec 5th, 2006
ken
I heard the other red head from Ipswich talking on radio last night indicating she might stand again for the next Federal Election.
That might be interesting re the above calculations on Senate results in QLD.
The talk was all the normal solid green / ALP left socialist protectionism, spiced up with the immigration rhetoric for the QLD rednecks. Geoff would have been impressed.
Dec 5th, 2006
John Humphreys
The ALP don’t believe in protectionism.
Dec 5th, 2006
ken
I’ll recall that gem John when I next hear some Union Offical, ALP politician moaning about poor little indians not deserving the chance to better their lives at the expense of our good ol aussie boys.
Keating and Hawke left a long time ago
Dec 5th, 2006
Aron
Hm, I really do hope the Morgan poll on the Senate voting intention is more accurate than Morgan’s past polls.
The other polls on the Rudd effect suggest that his election may impact on the minor party vote generally. This is where the extra primary vote was coming from when people were asked their intentions under Rudd cf Beazley. Either way, it’s nice to see Howard running scared again.
Dec 5th, 2006
Geoff
ken… moi? impressed? I’ve never been impressed with Hanson except, for her determination and stick-to-it-ness. Pity more pollies didn’t have her backbone.
I note Kevie pinching the One Nation line re rebuilding manufacturing in Australia. Good thing too since it was mostly “destroyed” by the ALP.
Dec 5th, 2006
Geoff
oh almost forgot… 10 years after One nation first proposed it.
Dec 5th, 2006
Graham Bell
Coalition Unity:
No, no, it’s the other way around. IF a federal election is allowed to happen next year and not postponed until after whatever fabricated security emergency that might get trotted out has passed ….. then harsh, cruel economic reality will destroy the Liberal Party, despite the fervent support of so many “aspirational” young Australians (older Australians who have seen their life’s work, hopes and savings ruined are unlikely to be deceived again).
Now that Kevin Rudd is boss of the parliamentary Labor Party, many former Liberals voters will flock to this bright young conservative. The rest of the former Liberals voters would find themselves quite at home in the Australian Democrats with many of its policies in tune with their own aspirations and values.
So, in Queensland, out of the wreckage of the Liberals, Labor would certainly pick up another Senate seat. Andrew Bartlett would romp home – even if the good old Nationals grassroots rumour mill did work overtime against him. The squabble over the leftovers would be more exciting than a football grand final – Labor? Greens? 2nd Democrats candidate? A corporate religion candidate? An independent like Pauline Hanson or someone dynamic from the former “Liberal Party”? Forget the Nationals in the next election; they’ve just ensured they will be defeated.
Dec 6th, 2006
Alan
Andrew, I hope this doesn’t sound like a hostile question, but:
Why do you “figure I have a responsibility and obligation to try” to win your Senate seat for another term?
Is the obligation to your constituents or ‘for all Australians’? Is it to your party or do you ‘owe it to yourself’?
Dec 8th, 2006
Andrew Bartlett
Alan
I don’t think I ‘owe it to myself’ at all.
I think I owe it to the ethos the Qld Democrats still represent to provide that choice for the electorate. I don’t see any other parties or candidates who offer a genuine democratic vision which sees as much value in the views of the voter as there is in the party machine.
I also think I have a responsibility to the many people who I seek to represent and assist, as I believe they and their views and concerns would not be as well represented by the other choices on offer.
Maybe voters are happy to hand over their democratic power to parties to then do as they see fit for the next 3 years. I’m not convinced that’s the best model for democracy, so the Democrats in Qld will offer a different choice to them.
To a lesser extent, I also owe it to the many people who have supported and worked for the Democrats in Queensland over the years. This isn’t to say that I don’t think they are important – indeed the Democrats would never have got anywhere without them. However, I don’t think it’s enough to keep a party alive just for the sake of it, or for some sort of nostalgia or ‘heritage’ reasons. The party still has to offer something valueable and viable.
I have no doubt that it does, and it’s my responsibility to do what I can do convince the electorate in Queensland of that. If they decide otherwise, I think it will be a big loss to the democratic process, but it will of course be up to the electorate. Having less money and media coverage than other alternatives doesn’t help in influencing the decision of the electorate, but there’s more to campaigning than that.
It would be much more relaxing to decide that I’ve had enough and leave it to someone else, particularly as next year is obvously going to be a hard task (not that it’s ever been easy for a Democrat), but I wouldn’t have got into the Senate in the first place without the Democrat members in Queensland. I don’t wish to bail out just cos it’s got harder.
Dec 8th, 2006
Christian Zuur
Good on you Andrew, stick with it
Like the beard by the way…;-)
Dec 8th, 2006