The latest Senate poll by Morgan has just been released, showing once more that I do have a real chance of retaining my seat, and also showing just how tight the Senate contest in Queensland could be.
The poll shows the ALP at 40% (down 0.5% from the last poll), Liberals & Nationals at 37.0% (up 3.0%), Greens 6.5% (up 0.5%), Pauline Hanson 5.5% (down 2%), Democrats 5.5% (up 1%), Family First 2.5% (down 0.5%), One Nation 0.5% (down 0.5%) and Others at 2.5% (down 1%).
I’ve done a few fairly long pieces in the past couple of months on possible Senate scenarios, party preference decisions and possible preference flows so I won’t redo all that again now. But if you plug these figures into the Senate preferences calculator on the ABC website, it shows that the composition of the “others” vote would make all the difference for the fifth and the sixth of the Senate places up for grabs.
If I can poll more than the Greens, I would get their preferences and be in with a very strong chance. Alternatively, if I can stay ahead of Pauline Hanson’s vote (after initial preference distributions) – noting that we’re level pegging in this poll – then if Family First were already excluded (which they would be on the above figures) then I would get her preferences and again be in with a very good chance.
Possible outcomes for the 6 Queensland Senate seats on these latest figures include:
- 3 Labor/3 Coalition;
- 3 Labor/2 Coalition/1 Democrat or Green;
- 2 Labor/2 Coalition/1 Family First/1 Green;
- 3 Labor/2 Coalition/1 Democrat or Green
Apart from the total uncertainty of how the 2.5% vote for ‘Others’ would split amongst the 17 groups it covers, there is also the fact that shifts of a couple of per cent (which is within the statistical margin of error for these sort of polls) in the primary votes of any of the 6 major contenders would also throw up a whole lot of other scenarios.
I wrote two weeks ago about the bookmakers’ odds for some of the Senate results. Those odds still show the return on a $1 wager on the Democrats winning a Senate seat anywhere stands at $4.50, while the return for a bet on Family First winning a seat stand at $4.00. There was a small piece recently in The Australian about it too.
Sportingbet Australia is offering odds of $4.50 on the Democrats managing to secure a single seat. And the outfit has set the short odds of $1.16 for punters willing to back the demise of the party. “Just about everyone is saying the Democrats will no longer be a political force after this election, so we’re giving political punters and pundits the chance to put their money where their mouth is and take the $1.16 on offer,” Sportingbet chief Michael Sullivan says. Sullivan believes Andrew Bartlett is the best chance the Democrats have of maintaining a presence. “Bartlett has been getting some positive press in Queensland and has to be considered some sort of chance,” Sullivan says, “I know he reckons he’s a chance and $4.50 is not a bad return.”
PS I again state for the record that I am not betting on myself (or anyone else), and am not advocating any bet on any particular outcome.