Bartlett's Blog

The result in a statewide poll that Lawrence Springborg’s merged LNP entity is leading Labor by 51-49 halfway through the campaign makes the possibility of a hung parliament seem more likely.  Which makes it worthwhile having a bit of a look at which Independents and minor party people might get elected, and which major party they might lean towards if they got to choose who formed government.

It also makes it much more dangerous for Labor not to arrange some sort of preference agreement with the Greens, must as they may wish to avoid giving that sort of help to former-Labor-now-Green MP, Ronan Lee.  Public Polity and The Tally Room both have more info and musings on that issue. The fact that the Greens have managed to field candidates in all 89 seats – a major effort for a minor party – strengthens their hand a bit further.

Two of the current Independents sitting in the state Parliament – Liz Cunningham and Peter Wellington – have had prior experience in deciding which party would form government, with Cunningham going with the National-Liberal Coalition in 1996 after the Mundingburra by-election, and Wellington plumping for Labor after the 1998 general election.

There are currently six sitting MPs on the cross-benches in the Queensland Parliament (or seven if you count Stuart Copeland, a sitting LNP MP who is running as an ‘independent’ this time in the seat of Condamine, after he got caught by a combination of having old seat abolished in a redistribution and the merger rules of the new LNP, which prevented him from contesting pre-selection in a seat covering his old area.).

These are made up of four independents – Liz Cunningham in Gladstone, Dolly Pratt in Nanango, Peter Wellington in Nicklin and Chris Foley in Maryborough (plus Copeland if you want to count him).  There is also Rosa Lee Long, a One Nation MP whose seat was also badly affected by the redistribution and now has to run in the new seat of Dalrymple, and Ronan Lee is recontesting his seat of Indooroopilly as a Green MP, after being initially elected as an ALP candidate.

Of all those, I think the One Nation MP will find it hardest to win.  Ronan Lee has a chance of winning, but the higher the LNP primary vote, the harder he will find it.  Among the current crop of sitting Independents, Chris Foley will win by a mile, and Peter Wellington’s margin won’t be much smaller.  The two women Independent MPs face tougher battles, but I think they would both be favourite.  Cunningham will be helped by the LNP’s interesting decision not to field a candidate in her seat – the only one out of 89 that they are not contesting.  I think Stuart Copeland has a chance of winning against his (former) LNP colleague in the new seat Condamine, but he will obviously support the LNP anyway – I’d be very surprised if he didn’t end up formally back in the fold one way or another if he wins.

My knowledge of all the different Independents running in other seats is not strong enough to make a call about who else might have a chance.  Wally Gleeson is one who came close in Warrego in 2001 and is recontesting again this time.

There are also five Independents who have previously served as MPs at one time or another in the past, although none of them ran as Independents the first time they won:

• -    Cate Molloy, a former ALP MP for Noosa who quit the party over the Traveston Dam, turning independent and re-contesting unsuccessfully last time.  She also ran unsuccessfully for a seat in the merged Sunshine Coast council elections last year.  As a bit of extra trivia, the ALP candidate for Noosa, Brian Stockwell, was elected to the old local council in the area back in the 1980s and also ran as a Democrat candidate once or twice around 20 years ago. He’s got a good record as an environmentalist and I hope he does well, but its hard to see the LNP losing this seat;
• -    Peter Pyke, a former Labor MP for the Brisbane based seat of Mt Ommaney in the early 90s, is running this time in Toowoomba South;
• -    Ken Turner, elected as One Nation MP for Thuringowa as part of their huge 1998 result.  Was unsuccessful at the next election, as well as in tilts for the local Council.  He’s having another go, but I think his main impact will be to cut into the LNP vote, this making it even easier for Labor to hold the seat;
• -    Elisa Roberts was elected as a One Nation MP for Gympie in 2001 and again as an Independent in 2004.  She changed her mind publicly a number of times about whether she would recontest in 2006, eventually doing so but losing to the Nationals.  Hard to see a different result this time.
• -    And of course, there’s former federal MP, Pauline Hanson running in the seat of Beaudesert. She was elected to federal Parliament in 1996 running as a disendorsed Liberal, losing her re-election bid in 1998. She’s since made three unsuccessful attempts running for the Senate in Queensland.  This is her first tilt at a Queensland seat in a state election, although she has also previously had an unsuccessful shot at the Upper House in a NSW state election.  According to Crikey’s weekly summary listing Media Monitor’s tally listing of media mentions for each politician, Hanson got mentioned more often than any politician in Australia except for Kevin Rudd, Malcolm Turnbull and Anna Bligh.  In the crucial area of television, she got more mentions than even Rudd managed.  The same occurred with talkback radio.  I’ll still be very surprised if she wins, but her entry into the race has given Labor a chance to sneak a win of an LNP seat, which they would not otherwise have thought possible.

I imagine every the sitting cross-bench MP who happens to be elected would say that in the event of a hung Parliament, they would consider the issues and listen to the arguments at the time before deciding who to support.  Issues like which party had the most seats or the higher vote may have an influence on their decision, especially for one or two.  But it is still reasonable to assess which way they would probably lean should the situation arise.

It would be safe to assume Ronan Lee would most likely back Labor (although Labor might have to agree to scrap Traveston Dam before he’d say yes), while Liz Cunningham would be most likely to back the LNP.  Given the nature of her electorate, it would seem reasonable to expect Dolly Pratt would do the same.  I would say the same of Chris Foley.  (If I’m wrong and Rosa Lee Long does get re-elected, it’s hard to see her backing Labor given the nature of her electorate.)

Peter Wellington is a bit harder to tell. It’s true he has back ed Labor in this situation in the past, but at that time, the alternative was a very messy mix of Nationals, Liberals and eleven brand new One Nation MPs.  Given all eleven of them either quit the Parliament or the party within a year, he clearly made the right call.  But that situation won’t occur this time and his electorate of Nicklin is conservative leaning.

So of the 5 current cross-benchers I think have a reasonable chance of winning, 1 and possibly 2 would lean towards Labor, while 3 would lean towards the LNP.  If Labor wins 44 seats and just needs one MP to back them, they might be OK – perhaps even if Ronan Lee loses, they might get Wellington in that circumstance (and they might still have to say no to the Traveston Dam first).  But any lower than that, and it starts to look grim for Labor.

I should emphasise that the prospect of a hung parliament is still only hypothetical.  If the two party preferred result of 51 per cent LNP to 49 per cent Labor was reflected through a uniform statewide swing, it would probably still leave Labor with a very narrow majority.  However, swings are rarely uniform, especially in Queensland elections, with significant regional variations and local factors.

There is also the difficulty of translating primary votes into two party preferred votes, given Queensland’s optional preferential voting system. And with most indications being that people are still fairly unengaged by the whole thing, what happens in the final two weeks of the campaign could still cause some significant shifts in voter support.  Still, it does make my initial prediction that Labor might only lose around 9 seats look fairly shakey at present.

To see details about each electorate at this election, check out PollBludger’s site, or Antony Green’s site at the ABC.

There are also plenty of daily posts with info and analysis at the Pineapple Party Time blog, which has been set up specifically for this election.