2010 federal election workshop

After every federal election since 1996, a group of political scientists have gathered at the Australian National University in Canberra to examine a whole range of factors from the election just gone.

I’ve spoken at each of these since the 1998 election, speaking about the campaign from the Democrats perspective – apart from the one held after the 2007 election, where I couldn’t quite muster the enthusiasm. The workshop examining the 2010 election was held over this weekend, and because of my past involvement, I was asked to speak at it. Given my role in this campaign was just one of 150 House of Representatives Greens candidates this time around, most of the Greens perspective was provided by Ebony Bennett, the party’s national campaign manager.

This year’s workshop examined the mainstream media, new media, opinion polls, religion, gender, regional issues, polling, the political cartoons, unions, business, the parties and state & territory factors. The proceedings are usually published in a book or a journal, and combined with the ANU’s Australian Election Study, provide a good historical overview of a particular election, as well as an in depth examination of the many different factors that influence the election outcome.

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13 Comments

  1. How long do you think it will be before we are back at the polls?

    Do you think anything at all will be passed by the lower house?

  2. I think there is a very strong likelihood that the next federal election will not happen until August 2013. If it’s any earlier than July 2013, it will have to be a House of Reps only election (without the Senate), as the chances of a double dissolution trigger appearing are quite low.

    I expect most legislation will pass the Lower House (and the Senate after its composition changes in July 2011) – if legislation looks like it won’t have support, I suspect the government will usually withdraw it or not proceed with it rather than have it voted down in the Parliament.

  3. Thanks, Andrew.

    I was expecting gridlock in the lower house over pretty much everything, with the withdrawal method you mentioned being practised quite a lot, and a fresh election called in less than a year.

  4. think there is a very strong likelihood that the next federal election will not happen until August 2013. If it’s any earlier than July 2013, it will have to be a House of Reps only election (without the Senate), as the chances of a double dissolution trigger appearing are quite low

    I think Andrew might be right.
    There are a number of triggers that may see many cross the floor and the Carbon Trade/Carbon tax are one of those. Many ALP Senators and MP’s are unhappy with the Green/Alliance and are openly discussing this which in itself is somewhat rare for an ALP government.

    As long as Julia keeps right away from these bills this government will last its term.

    Should a push come early and a vote of no confidence passed the coalition would regain the lower house which would nulify the green strangle hold on the senate after July 2011.

  5. Not so sure about that, Tony, If your namesake continues to lose favour through sore loser tactics, the H of R might be a landslide for the ALP is they are given 6 or 12 months to govern cautiously.

  6. Indeed Togret.

    To my mind, the real question is whether the Govt’s next-election chicken will precede the Opposition’s leadership egg.

    Given the malodorous passive-aggressive narcissism permeating the current Lib hierarchy, my guess is that the Gillard govt will see out most if not all of it’s elected term.

  7. It will be interesting to see how much influence the MSM reporting activity and the use of advertising on the various MSM was considered to have on the election? Given the swing in Qld compared to the rest of Australia one must consider the influence of these especially in Queensland.

  8. Davo:

    I was recently acquainted with a man who has been a union delegate and a member of the Labor Party. He said 90% of Queenslanders will never vote for Anna Bligh again.

    The Queensland Nurses’ Union have given the Labor Party the flick, and I saw a guy representing the Electrical Trades Union on TV saying he was quitting his Labor membership.

    At the same time, we have the Business Council of Australia asking the government via the National Press Club to bring in 100,000 more permanent residents each year, to work primarily in Aged Care.

    Here are some interesting links on a company named Serco which you and others might enjoy reading. It should give you at least some idea of the power that large corporations now wield across the world.

    http://www.ssds.com.au/

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6YBWxhm7mfY&feature=player_embedded

    I would also recommend viewing the movie: “Wall Street: Money Never Sleeps”.

    This gives a good insight into criminal manipulation of the money market and the link with socialism.

  9. TOGRET Says: Not so sure about that, Tony, If your namesake continues to lose favour through sore loser tactics, the H of R might be a landslide for the ALP is they are given 6 or 12 months to govern cautiously

    I can’t see the ALP improving in Queensland at all. Latest figures suggest that they are getting worse.
    The asset sales… particularly Q R National will haunt the ALP in this state for decades.
    This is not a decision that Queenslanders will forget in a hurry and 87% of Queenslanders are well aware of the nearly 1 Billion a year they will lose in revenue.

    We are already bracing for the huge increase in state taxes and suburban rail fare increases that must follow such a massive public asset sell-off.

  10. Dear Andrew,
    The collective political organism does seem to have somehow emulated a decision making process at the last election.
    All sorts of promises/compromises had to be made in order to proceed with parliament.

    It now seems that the promises have gone by the board and that we’re back to the same adversarial blether intended to eternally obfuscate and impede progress.
    A mildly cynical person might construe that there is method in the madness of the leader of HM’s Australian opposition – a method that suits both major parties right down to the ground.

    Then there’s queensland and a population that apparently cannot distill state issues from federal.
    Or can it?

    Queenslanders might be averse to being offered the penny packet purchase of something they already own but that didn’t stop Australians from buying shares in Telstra when as citizens of this alleged ‘commonwealth’ they already owned that utility.

    But of course the motive in both cases is not about selling these utilities to Australians; is it?
    Could that be what everyone is ropable about?
    Naturally, the big problem for queenslanders is lack of choice – the same lack of choice that has had labor gaining a majority by default in this unicameral joke of a legislature the last several raffles.

    So, by using perverted queensland logic I can only surmise that, being confronted with 360 degree ineptitude, a majority of queenslanders voted conservative federally hoping to bring some back-door influence to bear upon Madame Bligh.

    How might you assess that scenario?

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